Niva vs Volna Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.11 expected goals for Niva and 1.09 for Volna, a combined total of 4.20. That distribution gives Niva the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Niva win

77.0% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

3.11 – 1.09

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Niva home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Volna away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Niva to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 13% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.11 goals for Niva and 1.09 for Volna, a combined 4.20 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Niva win77%

Draw13%

Volna win10%

Double chance 1X

90%

Double chance 12

87%

Double chance X2

23%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals79%

Over 3.5 goals60%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

3–18.2%
2–17.9%
3–07.5%
2–07.2%
4–16.4%

Recent form

Niva

2026-10-17T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Gomel II · 5-2 (W)
2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Orsha · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Volna · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Smorgon · 0-1 (L)

Volna

2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Ostrovets FC · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Slonim · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs BATE II · 3-5 (L)
2026-08-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Uni Minsk · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Slutsk	30	20	6	4	32	66
2	Lida	30	20	3	7	11	63
3	Niva	30	19	5	6	41	62
4	FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk	30	18	5	7	29	59
5	Slonim	30	16	5	9	18	53
6	Shakhter Soligorsk	30	13	8	9	14	47
7	Molodechno-DYuSSh 4	29	14	3	12	-2	45
8	Bumprom	30	12	5	13	6	41
9	Ostrovets FC	30	9	12	9	-1	39
10	Smorgon	30	11	6	13	-4	39
11	Volna	30	11	5	14	-11	38
12	Dinamo Minsk II	27	10	5	12	1	35
13	Minsk II	30	10	3	17	-16	33
14	Uni Minsk	29	7	9	13	-8	30
15	Orsha	30	8	6	16	-21	30
16	Gomel II	30	6	6	18	-20	24
17	Osipovichy	30	6	5	19	-40	23
18	BATE II	29	5	7	17	-29	22

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Niva win, at 77.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.

A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.