Sovcombank Arena · Analysis updated 11:48 UTC
Nizhny Novgorod vs Arsenal Tula Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.98 expected goals for Nizhny Novgorod and 0.93 for Arsenal Tula, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives Nizhny Novgorod the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Nizhny Novgorod win
78.5% probability
Expected goals
2.98 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nizhny Novgorod home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arsenal Tula away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nizhny Novgorod to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 79% / 13% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.98 goals for Nizhny Novgorod and 0.93 for Arsenal Tula, a combined 3.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
22%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.0%
- 3–08.9%
- 2–18.3%
- 3–18.2%
- 4–06.6%
Recent form
Nizhny Novgorod
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ural · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Shinnik Yaroslavl · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Enisey · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Moscow · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Leningradets · 6-0 (W)
Arsenal Tula
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KAMAZ · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FC UFA · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Kostroma · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Moscow · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nizhny Novgorod | 15 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 40 |
| 2 | FC Sochi | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 32 |
| 3 | Torpedo Moskva | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 28 |
| 4 | Spartak Kostroma | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| 5 | Veles | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 27 |
| 6 | Ural | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 25 |
| 7 | FC UFA | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 21 |
| 8 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 20 |
| 9 | Rotor Volgograd | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
| 10 | Arsenal Tula | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -10 | 19 |
| 11 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 18 |
| 12 | Chelyabinsk | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -5 | 15 |
| 13 | Enisey | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -14 | 14 |
| 14 | KAMAZ | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -8 | 13 |
| 15 | Leningradets | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 13 |
| 16 | FK Neftekhimik | 14 | 4 | 0 | 10 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 | Ska-khabarovsk | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -10 | 10 |
| 18 | Tekstilshchik | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -14 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nizhny Novgorod win, at 78.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.