Sports Illustrated Stadium · Referee Bensalah, Nabil · Analysis updated 12:33 UTC
NJ/NY Gotham FC W vs Angel City W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for NJ/NY Gotham FC W and 1.70 for Angel City W, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Angel City W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Angel City W win
51.4% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
NJ/NY Gotham FC W home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Angel City W away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 0–110.3%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–28.8%
- 1–06.7%
Recent form
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
- 2026-09-19T22:30:00.000Z · A vs North Carolina Courage W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Racing Louisville W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Denver Summit W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Portland Thorns W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-24T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Angel City W · 0-0 (D)
Angel City W
- 2026-10-18T00:45:00.000Z · A vs Denver Summit W · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs NJ/NY Gotham FC W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Washington Spirit W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T23:05:00.000Z · A vs Utah Royals W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Seattle Reign FC W · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-24T00:00:00.000Z · NJ/NY Gotham FC W 0-0 Angel City W (NWSL Women)
- 2025-09-07T21:00:00.000Z · NJ/NY Gotham FC W 3-1 Angel City W (NWSL Women)
- 2025-04-19T02:30:00.000Z · NJ/NY Gotham FC W 4-0 Angel City W (NWSL Women)
- 2024-08-06T21:00:00.000Z · NJ/NY Gotham FC W 1-0 Angel City W (NWSL - Liga MXF Summer Cup)
- 2024-07-07T02:00:00.000Z · NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2-1 Angel City W (NWSL Women)
- 2024-06-08T16:30:00.000Z · NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2-1 Angel City W (NWSL Women)
- 2023-07-02T21:30:00.000Z · NJ/NY Gotham FC W 0-0 Angel City W (NWSL Women)
- 2023-03-27T01:00:00.000Z · NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2-1 Angel City W (NWSL Women)
- 2022-08-28T21:00:00.000Z · NJ/NY Gotham FC W 1-3 Angel City (NWSL Women)
- 2022-05-30T00:00:00.000Z · NJ/NY Gotham FC W 1-0 Angel City (NWSL Women)
NWSL Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NJ/NY Gotham FC W | 28 | 16 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 55 |
| 2 | San Diego Wave W | 28 | 17 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 54 |
| 3 | Washington Spirit W | 28 | 16 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 52 |
| 4 | Angel City W | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 49 |
| 5 | Kansas City W | 28 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 47 |
| 6 | Utah Royals W | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 47 |
| 7 | Portland Thorns W | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 47 |
| 8 | Seattle Reign FC W | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 44 |
| 9 | North Carolina Courage W | 29 | 13 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 42 |
| 10 | Denver Summit W | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 41 |
| 11 | Orlando Pride W | 28 | 11 | 3 | 14 | -6 | 36 |
| 12 | Houston Dash W | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | -4 | 33 |
| 13 | Boston Legacy W | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 32 |
| 14 | Bay FC W | 29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | -16 | 27 |
| 15 | Racing Louisville W | 29 | 7 | 3 | 19 | -22 | 24 |
| 16 | Chicago Red Stars W | 29 | 5 | 2 | 22 | -52 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Angel City W win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.