Sports Illustrated Stadium · Referee Lauren Aldrich · Analysis updated 00:51 UTC
NJ/NY Gotham FC W vs Chicago Red Stars W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for NJ/NY Gotham FC W and 0.77 for Chicago Red Stars W, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives NJ/NY Gotham FC W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
NJ/NY Gotham FC W win
67.6% probability
Expected goals
2.08 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
NJ/NY Gotham FC W home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Chicago Red Stars W away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.5%
- 1–012.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.3%
- 3–08.6%
Recent form
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
- 2026-10-25T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Orlando Pride W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Washington Spirit W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Angel City W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Chicago Red Stars W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T22:30:00.000Z · A vs North Carolina Courage W · 2-1 (W)
Chicago Red Stars W
- 2026-08-30T00:55:00.000Z · A vs Denver Summit W · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing Louisville W · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-20T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Houston Dash W · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-15T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Seattle Reign FC W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-09T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Bay FC W · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-26T00:00:00.000Z · NJ/NY Gotham FC W 3-1 Chicago Red Stars W (NWSL Women)
- 2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z · NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2-0 Chicago Red Stars W (NWSL Women)
- 2025-08-02T00:00:00.000Z · NJ/NY Gotham FC W 1-1 Chicago Red Stars W (NWSL Women)
- 2025-05-04T17:00:00.000Z · NJ/NY Gotham FC W 0-0 Chicago Red Stars W (NWSL Women)
- 2024-10-12T20:00:00.000Z · NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2-0 Chicago Red Stars W (NWSL Women)
- 2024-07-20T21:00:00.000Z · NJ/NY Gotham FC W 0-0 Chicago Red Stars W (NWSL - Liga MXF Summer Cup)
- 2024-05-19T21:00:00.000Z · NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2-1 Chicago Red Stars W (NWSL Women)
- 2023-06-25T21:30:00.000Z · NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2-1 Chicago Red Stars W (NWSL Women)
- 2023-05-07T22:00:00.000Z · NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2-1 Chicago Red Stars W (NWSL Women)
- 2022-08-07T22:00:00.000Z · NJ/NY Gotham FC W 0-2 Chicago Red Stars W (NWSL Women)
NWSL Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NJ/NY Gotham FC W | 29 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 58 |
| 2 | San Diego Wave W | 28 | 17 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 54 |
| 3 | Washington Spirit W | 28 | 16 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 52 |
| 4 | Angel City W | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 49 |
| 5 | Kansas City W | 28 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 47 |
| 6 | Utah Royals W | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 47 |
| 7 | Portland Thorns W | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 47 |
| 8 | Seattle Reign FC W | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 44 |
| 9 | North Carolina Courage W | 29 | 13 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 42 |
| 10 | Denver Summit W | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 41 |
| 11 | Orlando Pride W | 29 | 11 | 3 | 15 | -7 | 36 |
| 12 | Houston Dash W | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | -4 | 33 |
| 13 | Boston Legacy W | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 32 |
| 14 | Bay FC W | 29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | -16 | 27 |
| 15 | Racing Louisville W | 29 | 7 | 3 | 19 | -22 | 24 |
| 16 | Chicago Red Stars W | 29 | 5 | 2 | 22 | -52 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is NJ/NY Gotham FC W win, at 67.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.