Stadion Maksimir · Referee Ivan Vukančić, Croatia · Analysis updated 15:20 UTC
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and 1.65 for HNK Rijeka, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives HNK Rijeka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.8% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
HNK Rijeka away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–18.1%
- 0–16.7%
- 2–26.7%
Recent form
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Zagreb · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs HNK Rijeka · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Cuba U20 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Slaven Belupo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-31T16:30:00.000Z · A vs HNK Hajduk Split · 0-2 (L)
HNK Rijeka
- 2026-10-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlovac 1919 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rudes · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Slaven Belupo · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Union Berlin · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs HNK Hajduk Split · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HNK Rijeka (HNL)
- 2026-05-03T14:00:00.000Z · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-3 HNK Rijeka (HNL)
- 2026-03-01T14:00:00.000Z · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-2 HNK Rijeka (HNL)
- 2025-11-30T14:00:00.000Z · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HNK Rijeka (HNL)
- 2025-09-13T17:45:00.000Z · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HNK Rijeka (HNL)
- 2025-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-1 HNK Rijeka (HNL)
- 2025-01-26T14:00:00.000Z · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-4 HNK Rijeka (HNL)
- 2024-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-2 HNK Rijeka (HNL)
- 2024-08-04T16:50:00.000Z · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-4 HNK Rijeka (HNL)
- 2024-04-28T17:30:00.000Z · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3-1 HNK Rijeka (HNL)
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | NK Varazdin | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
| 3 | Dinamo Zagreb | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | NK Osijek | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | NK Slaven Belupo | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 7 |
| 9 | Rudes | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.