Stadion Maksimir · Analysis updated 05:40 UTC
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Osijek Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and 1.25 for NK Osijek, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives NK Lokomotiva Zagreb the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.7% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
NK Osijek away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–17.4%
- 2–07.4%
Recent form
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs HNK Gorica · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Istra 1961 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Varazdin · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Zagreb · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs HNK Rijeka · 1-1 (D)
NK Osijek
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Istra 1961 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Varazdin · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Zagreb · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Segesta Sisak · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T19:00:00.000Z · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-1 NK Osijek (HNL)
- 2026-04-25T16:15:00.000Z · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-0 NK Osijek (HNL)
- 2026-02-21T16:15:00.000Z · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3-1 NK Osijek (HNL)
- 2025-11-23T15:00:00.000Z · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 NK Osijek (HNL)
- 2025-08-31T16:15:00.000Z · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 NK Osijek (HNL)
- 2025-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 NK Osijek (HNL)
- 2025-03-08T16:30:00.000Z · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3-0 NK Osijek (HNL)
- 2024-12-08T16:30:00.000Z · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-3 NK Osijek (HNL)
- 2024-09-22T15:30:00.000Z · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-1 NK Osijek (HNL)
- 2024-05-04T17:30:00.000Z · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-3 NK Osijek (HNL)
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 22 |
| 2 | Dinamo Zagreb | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 19 |
| 3 | NK Varazdin | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | HNK Rijeka | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | NK Osijek | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | NK Slaven Belupo | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 13 |
| 7 | Istra 1961 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 | Rudes | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 10 |
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.