· Analysis updated 20:08 UTC
NK Ormoz vs Korotan Prevalje Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.11 expected goals for NK Ormoz and 1.35 for Korotan Prevalje, a combined total of 3.46. That distribution gives NK Ormoz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
NK Ormoz win
54.8% probability
Expected goals
2.11 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
NK Ormoz home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Korotan Prevalje away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates NK Ormoz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 21% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.11 goals for NK Ormoz and 1.35 for Korotan Prevalje, a combined 3.46 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.4%
- 1–19.0%
- 2–07.0%
- 1–06.6%
- 3–16.6%
Recent form
NK Ormoz
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Šampion Celje · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Odranci · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Dobrovce · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fužinar · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Limbuš Pekre · 4-0 (W)
Korotan Prevalje
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fužinar · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Limbuš Pekre · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ljutomer · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Podvinci · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Čarda Martjanci · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. SNL - East table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Odranci | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 26 |
| 2 | Fužinar | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | NK Ormoz | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 4 | Šmartno | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Hajdina | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Čarda Martjanci | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | Videm | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 8 | Podvinci | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 9 | Rače | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 10 | Korotan Prevalje | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 11 | Dobrovce | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -12 | 9 |
| 12 | Ljutomer | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | Limbuš Pekre | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 8 |
| 14 | Šampion Celje | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is NK Ormoz win, at 54.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.