· Analysis updated 15:21 UTC
NK Ormoz vs Šampion Celje Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.70 expected goals for NK Ormoz and 1.43 for Šampion Celje, a combined total of 4.13. That distribution gives NK Ormoz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
NK Ormoz win
64.4% probability
Expected goals
2.70 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
NK Ormoz home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Šampion Celje away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates NK Ormoz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 17% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.70 goals for NK Ormoz and 1.43 for Šampion Celje, a combined 4.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.4%
- 3–17.6%
- 1–16.2%
- 2–26.0%
- 2–05.9%
Recent form
NK Ormoz
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Odranci · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Dobrovce · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fužinar · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Limbuš Pekre · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Ljutomer · 1-1 (D)
Šampion Celje
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Odranci · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dobrovce · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Fužinar · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Limbuš Pekre · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ljutomer · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. SNL - East table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Odranci | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 23 |
| 2 | Fužinar | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 19 |
| 3 | Šmartno | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 4 | NK Ormoz | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Hajdina | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Čarda Martjanci | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 |
| 7 | Videm | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 8 | Podvinci | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 9 | Korotan Prevalje | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Rače | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Dobrovce | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 9 |
| 12 | Ljutomer | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | Limbuš Pekre | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -15 | 5 |
| 14 | Šampion Celje | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is NK Ormoz win, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.