· Analysis updated 09:09 UTC
NK Osijek vs Budapest Honved Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.73 expected goals for NK Osijek and 2.65 for Budapest Honved, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Budapest Honved the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Budapest Honved win
78.2% probability
Expected goals
0.73 – 2.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
NK Osijek home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Budapest Honved away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Budapest Honved to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 8% / 14% / 78% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.73 goals for NK Osijek and 2.65 for Budapest Honved, a combined 3.38 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
22%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–212.0%
- 0–310.6%
- 0–19.1%
- 1–28.7%
- 1–37.7%
Recent form
NK Osijek
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Istra 1961 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Varazdin · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Zagreb · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Segesta Sisak · 1-3 (L)
Budapest Honved
- 2026-10-11T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Ujpest · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Puskas Academy · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bajai · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Gyori ETO FC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Zalaegerszegi TE · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-18T17:00:00.000Z · NK Osijek 2-1 Budapest Honved (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-01-07T00:00:00.000Z · NK Osijek 1-2 Budapest Honved (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Budapest Honved win, at 78.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.