Opus Arena · Referee A. Terzic · Analysis updated 16:40 UTC
NK Osijek vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for NK Osijek and 1.93 for Dinamo Zagreb, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives Dinamo Zagreb the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.4% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
NK Osijek home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dinamo Zagreb away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.7%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–17.4%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–35.4%
Recent form
NK Osijek
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Istra 1961 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Varazdin · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Zagreb · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Segesta Sisak · 1-3 (L)
Dinamo Zagreb
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Anderlecht · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs HNK Hajduk Split · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vukovar · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Beer Sheva · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · NK Osijek 4-2 Dinamo Zagreb (HNL)
- 2026-04-04T13:00:00.000Z · NK Osijek 0-7 Dinamo Zagreb (HNL)
- 2026-01-25T16:45:00.000Z · NK Osijek 0-3 Dinamo Zagreb (HNL)
- 2025-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · NK Osijek 1-2 Dinamo Zagreb (HNL)
- 2025-08-02T19:00:00.000Z · NK Osijek 0-2 Dinamo Zagreb (HNL)
- 2025-04-12T16:45:00.000Z · NK Osijek 0-2 Dinamo Zagreb (HNL)
- 2025-02-26T18:45:00.000Z · NK Osijek 1-0 Dinamo Zagreb (Cup)
- 2025-02-02T14:00:00.000Z · NK Osijek 2-1 Dinamo Zagreb (HNL)
- 2024-10-27T14:00:00.000Z · NK Osijek 4-2 Dinamo Zagreb (HNL)
- 2024-08-11T19:00:00.000Z · NK Osijek 1-2 Dinamo Zagreb (HNL)
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | NK Varazdin | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
| 3 | Dinamo Zagreb | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | NK Osijek | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | NK Slaven Belupo | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 7 |
| 9 | Rudes | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.