Opus Arena · Referee Ante Terzić, Croatia · Analysis updated 18:53 UTC
NK Osijek vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for NK Osijek and 1.17 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives NK Osijek the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
NK Osijek win
56.6% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.17
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
NK Osijek home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates NK Osijek to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 22% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for NK Osijek and 1.17 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.8%
- 2–08.4%
- 1–08.4%
- 3–16.6%
Recent form
NK Osijek
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Istra 1961 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Varazdin · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Zagreb · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Segesta Sisak · 1-3 (L)
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Zagreb · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs HNK Rijeka · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Cuba U20 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Slaven Belupo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-31T16:30:00.000Z · A vs HNK Hajduk Split · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 22 |
| 2 | Dinamo Zagreb | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 19 |
| 3 | NK Varazdin | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | NK Osijek | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | NK Slaven Belupo | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 13 |
| 7 | Istra 1961 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 | HNK Gorica | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 10 | Rudes | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is NK Osijek win, at 56.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.