Gradski stadion Ivan Kusek Apas · Analysis updated 13:34 UTC
NK Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for NK Slaven Belupo and 1.83 for Dinamo Zagreb, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives NK Slaven Belupo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.7% probability
Expected goals
1.92 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
NK Slaven Belupo home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Dinamo Zagreb away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.3%
- 2–18.0%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–27.3%
- 3–15.1%
Recent form
NK Slaven Belupo
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rudes · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs HNK Hajduk Split · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Osijek · 0-3 (L)
Dinamo Zagreb
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vukovar · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Beer Sheva · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Osijek · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Bedem Ivankovo · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-31T18:00:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 0-2 Dinamo Zagreb (HNL)
- 2026-05-17T14:00:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 1-4 Dinamo Zagreb (HNL)
- 2026-03-14T16:15:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 2-4 Dinamo Zagreb (HNL)
- 2025-12-14T14:00:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 2-5 Dinamo Zagreb (HNL)
- 2025-09-28T16:15:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 1-4 Dinamo Zagreb (HNL)
- 2025-05-10T17:45:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 0-5 Dinamo Zagreb (HNL)
- 2025-03-09T16:30:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 0-1 Dinamo Zagreb (HNL)
- 2024-12-06T17:00:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 1-1 Dinamo Zagreb (HNL)
- 2024-09-21T15:30:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 4-1 Dinamo Zagreb (HNL)
- 2024-05-18T17:10:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 2-3 Dinamo Zagreb (HNL)
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | NK Varazdin | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
| 3 | Dinamo Zagreb | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | NK Osijek | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | NK Slaven Belupo | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 7 |
| 9 | Rudes | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.