Gradski stadion Ivan Kušek Apaš · Referee Mateo Erceg, Croatia · Analysis updated 13:41 UTC
NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for NK Slaven Belupo and 2.18 for HNK Gorica, a combined total of 3.82. That distribution gives HNK Gorica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
HNK Gorica win
49.9% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 2.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
NK Slaven Belupo home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
HNK Gorica away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.5%
- 1–17.8%
- 2–27.0%
- 2–16.5%
- 1–36.2%
Recent form
NK Slaven Belupo
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rudes · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs HNK Hajduk Split · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Osijek · 0-3 (L)
HNK Gorica
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rudes · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bravo · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-28T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Maribor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Istra 1961 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Varazdin · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T16:30:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 2-0 HNK Gorica (HNL)
- 2026-05-10T16:15:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 1-0 HNK Gorica (HNL)
- 2026-03-07T14:00:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 2-2 HNK Gorica (HNL)
- 2025-12-05T17:00:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 2-1 HNK Gorica (HNL)
- 2025-09-21T15:00:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 1-2 HNK Gorica (HNL)
- 2025-05-18T14:00:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 4-0 HNK Gorica (HNL)
- 2025-03-14T17:00:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 3-0 HNK Gorica (HNL)
- 2025-03-05T16:00:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 3-1 HNK Gorica (Cup)
- 2024-12-13T17:00:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 2-1 HNK Gorica (HNL)
- 2024-09-30T14:00:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 1-2 HNK Gorica (HNL)
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 22 |
| 2 | Dinamo Zagreb | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 19 |
| 3 | NK Varazdin | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | NK Osijek | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | NK Slaven Belupo | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 13 |
| 7 | Istra 1961 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 | HNK Gorica | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 10 | Rudes | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is HNK Gorica win, at 49.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.