Gradski stadion Ivan Kusek Apas · Analysis updated 21:08 UTC
NK Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for NK Slaven Belupo and 1.45 for Istra 1961, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives NK Slaven Belupo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.4% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
NK Slaven Belupo home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Istra 1961 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–28.1%
- 1–07.7%
- 0–17.2%
Recent form
NK Slaven Belupo
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rudes · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs HNK Hajduk Split · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Osijek · 0-3 (L)
Istra 1961
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs HNK Gorica · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rudes · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-08T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Zagorec · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Varazdin · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Zagreb · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T16:30:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 0-3 Istra 1961 (HNL)
- 2026-05-04T16:00:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 1-3 Istra 1961 (HNL)
- 2026-02-27T17:00:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 1-0 Istra 1961 (HNL)
- 2025-11-29T17:15:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 1-1 Istra 1961 (HNL)
- 2025-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 2-1 Istra 1961 (HNL)
- 2025-04-28T15:00:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 1-1 Istra 1961 (HNL)
- 2025-02-23T16:30:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 0-0 Istra 1961 (HNL)
- 2024-11-22T17:00:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 3-2 Istra 1961 (HNL)
- 2024-08-31T16:15:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 0-1 Istra 1961 (HNL)
- 2024-04-26T16:00:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 0-3 Istra 1961 (HNL)
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 22 |
| 2 | Dinamo Zagreb | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 19 |
| 3 | NK Varazdin | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | NK Osijek | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | NK Slaven Belupo | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 13 |
| 7 | Istra 1961 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 | HNK Gorica | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 10 | Rudes | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.