Gradski stadion Ivan Kušek Apaš · Referee Dario Bel, Croatia · Analysis updated 08:25 UTC
NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for NK Slaven Belupo and 1.70 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives NK Lokomotiva Zagreb the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.6% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
NK Slaven Belupo home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–18.0%
- 2–26.8%
- 0–16.3%
Recent form
NK Slaven Belupo
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Varazdin · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Zagreb · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs HNK Rijeka · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-01T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpija Ljubljana · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rudes · 2-2 (D)
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs HNK Gorica · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Istra 1961 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Varazdin · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Zagreb · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs HNK Rijeka · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 2-1 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (HNL)
- 2026-04-21T14:00:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 1-2 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (HNL)
- 2026-03-10T15:30:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 1-1 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (Cup)
- 2026-02-13T17:00:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 2-0 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (HNL)
- 2026-01-16T14:00:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 2-4 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-11-08T14:00:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 1-1 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (HNL)
- 2025-08-23T16:45:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 1-2 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (HNL)
- 2025-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 2-0 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (HNL)
- 2025-02-09T16:45:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 2-1 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (HNL)
- 2024-11-02T14:00:00.000Z · NK Slaven Belupo 1-0 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (HNL)
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 22 |
| 2 | Dinamo Zagreb | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 19 |
| 3 | NK Varazdin | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | HNK Rijeka | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | NK Osijek | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | NK Slaven Belupo | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 13 |
| 7 | Istra 1961 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 | Rudes | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 10 |
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.