Gradski stadion Ivan Kušek Apaš · Referee Duje Strukan, Croatia · Analysis updated 15:33 UTC
NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Varazdin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.02 expected goals for NK Slaven Belupo and 1.62 for NK Varazdin, a combined total of 2.64. That distribution gives NK Varazdin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
NK Varazdin win
51.4% probability
Expected goals
1.02 – 1.62
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
NK Slaven Belupo home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
NK Varazdin away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates NK Varazdin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 24% / 25% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.02 goals for NK Slaven Belupo and 1.62 for NK Varazdin, a combined 2.64 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 0–111.6%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–29.4%
- 1–07.3%
Recent form
NK Slaven Belupo
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rudes · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs HNK Hajduk Split · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Osijek · 0-3 (L)
NK Varazdin
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Aluminij · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Osijek · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs HNK Gorica · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Zagora · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | NK Varazdin | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
| 3 | Dinamo Zagreb | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | NK Osijek | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | NK Slaven Belupo | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 7 |
| 9 | Rudes | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is NK Varazdin win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.