Stadion Varteks · Analysis updated 15:20 UTC
NK Varazdin vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for NK Varazdin and 0.99 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, a combined total of 2.61. That distribution gives NK Varazdin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
NK Varazdin win
52.2% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
NK Varazdin home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates NK Varazdin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 25% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for NK Varazdin and 0.99 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, a combined 2.61 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.9%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–09.7%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.3%
Recent form
NK Varazdin
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Aluminij · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Osijek · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs HNK Gorica · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Zagora · 4-0 (W)
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Zagreb · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs HNK Rijeka · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Cuba U20 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Slaven Belupo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-31T16:30:00.000Z · A vs HNK Hajduk Split · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is NK Varazdin win, at 52.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.