Stadion Varteks · Referee Marko Crnojevic, Croatia · Analysis updated 14:40 UTC
NK Varazdin vs Rudes Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.65 expected goals for NK Varazdin and 0.95 for Rudes, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives NK Varazdin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
NK Varazdin win
73.5% probability
Expected goals
2.65 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
NK Varazdin home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Rudes away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.6%
- 2–19.1%
- 3–08.5%
- 3–18.1%
- 1–07.2%
Recent form
NK Varazdin
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Aluminij · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Osijek · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs HNK Gorica · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Zagora · 4-0 (W)
Rudes
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Slaven Belupo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Istra 1961 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Koprivnica · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs HNK Hajduk Split · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Varazdin · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2024-04-22T15:00:00.000Z · NK Varazdin 2-0 Rudes (HNL)
- 2024-02-09T16:00:00.000Z · NK Varazdin 1-0 Rudes (HNL)
- 2023-10-28T14:00:00.000Z · NK Varazdin 0-0 Rudes (HNL)
- 2023-08-12T18:00:00.000Z · NK Varazdin 2-0 Rudes (HNL)
- 2023-07-12T17:00:00.000Z · NK Varazdin 1-0 Rudes (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-04-30T13:00:00.000Z · NK Varazdin 0-3 Rudes (First NL)
- 2021-10-31T18:00:00.000Z · NK Varazdin 2-1 Rudes (First NL)
- 2019-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · NK Varazdin 4-2 Rudes (Cup)
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | NK Varazdin | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
| 3 | Dinamo Zagreb | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | NK Osijek | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | NK Slaven Belupo | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 7 |
| 9 | Rudes | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is NK Varazdin win, at 73.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.