· Analysis updated 18:04 UTC
Nkana vs Kansanshi Dynamos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Nkana and 0.87 for Kansanshi Dynamos, a combined total of 2.12. That distribution gives Nkana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Nkana win
45.0% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nkana home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kansanshi Dynamos away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nkana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 29% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Nkana and 0.87 for Kansanshi Dynamos, a combined 2.12 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.9%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–011.9%
- 0–110.4%
- 2–09.3%
Recent form
Nkana
- 2026-05-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kansanshi Dynamos · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Man Utd Zambia Academy · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs ZESCO United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nchanga Rangers · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs NAPSA Stars · 1-1 (D)
Kansanshi Dynamos
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zanaco · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Konkola Blades · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Man Utd Zambia Academy · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Makeni All Stars · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nkana · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zanaco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | ZESCO United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Nchanga Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Green Buffaloes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Nkana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Kabwe Warriors | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Power Dynamos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Red Arrows | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Konkola Blades | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Roan United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | NAPSA Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Green Eagles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Man Utd Zambia Academy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Nkwazi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Kansanshi Dynamos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Mufulira Wanderers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Trident | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Mutondo Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Makeni All Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Chirundu Utd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nkana win, at 45.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.