Nkana vs Man Utd Zambia Academy Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Nkana and 0.88 for Man Utd Zambia Academy, a combined total of 1.78. That distribution gives Nkana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 34%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 34% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.90 – 0.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Nkana home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nkana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 34%, against 34% / 33% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Nkana and 0.88 for Man Utd Zambia Academy, a combined 1.78 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 26% and both teams to score at 35%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%.

Match result (1X2)

Nkana win34%

Draw33%

Man Utd Zambia Academy win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

67%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals53%

Over 2.5 goals26%

Over 3.5 goals11%

Both teams to score35%

Correct score

0–016.9%
1–015.3%
0–114.8%
1–113.3%
2–06.9%

Recent form

Nkana

2026-05-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kansanshi Dynamos · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Man Utd Zambia Academy · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs ZESCO United · 1-0 (W)
2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nchanga Rangers · 0-1 (L)
2026-04-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs NAPSA Stars · 1-1 (D)

Man Utd Zambia Academy

2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Power Dynamos · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Makeni All Stars · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kansanshi Dynamos · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs NAPSA Stars · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kabwe Warriors · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Super League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Zanaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	ZESCO United	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Nchanga Rangers	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Green Buffaloes	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Nkana	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Kabwe Warriors	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Power Dynamos	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Red Arrows	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Konkola Blades	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Roan United	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	NAPSA Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Green Eagles	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Man Utd Zambia Academy	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Nkwazi	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Kansanshi Dynamos	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Mufulira Wanderers	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Trident	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Mutondo Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Makeni All Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Chirundu Utd	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.