· Analysis updated 15:37 UTC
Noah II vs Shirak II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for Noah II and 1.77 for Shirak II, a combined total of 3.31. That distribution gives Shirak II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.1% probability
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Noah II home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Shirak II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shirak II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 34% / 23% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.54 goals for Noah II and 1.77 for Shirak II, a combined 3.31 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 1–28.8%
- 2–17.7%
- 2–26.8%
- 0–16.5%
Recent form
Noah II
- 2026-09-21T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Shirak II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Ararat II · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-07T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Araks Ararat · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Andranik · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sardarapat 2 · 2-1 (W)
Shirak II
- 2026-10-09T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Pyunik II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Noah II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympia Yerevan · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Ararat II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-15T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Araks Ararat · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olympia Yerevan | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 22 |
| 2 | Andranik | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 19 |
| 3 | BKMA II | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 19 |
| 4 | Bentonit Ijevan | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
| 5 | Araks Ararat | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 6 | Lernayin Artsakh | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 7 | Pyunik II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | Mika | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 9 | Shirak II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 10 | Ararat II | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Banants II | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 12 | Noah II | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -15 | 6 |
| 13 | Sardarapat 2 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -10 | 6 |
| 14 | Ararat-Armenia II | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.