Noblejas vs Quintanar del Rey Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Noblejas and 1.20 for Quintanar del Rey, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives Noblejas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Noblejas win

50.9% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.78 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Noblejas home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Noblejas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 23% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Noblejas and 1.20 for Quintanar del Rey, a combined 2.97 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 57% and both teams to score at 58%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Match result (1X2)

Noblejas win51%

Draw23%

Quintanar del Rey win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–110.9%
2–19.6%
1–09.1%
2–08.0%
1–26.5%

Recent form

Noblejas

2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Illescas · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarrobledo · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Toledo · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs San Clemente · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Almansa · 3-2 (W)

Quintanar del Rey

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchego	6	5	0	1	4	15
2	Torrijos	6	4	2	0	8	14
3	Illescas	6	4	2	0	5	14
4	Toledo	6	4	1	1	8	13
5	Villarrobledo	6	3	3	0	7	12
6	CD Villa	6	4	0	2	3	12
7	Almansa	6	3	1	2	5	10
8	Tarancón	6	3	1	2	4	10
9	Villacañas	6	2	2	2	2	8
10	Marchamalo	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	San Clemente	6	2	2	2	-2	8
12	Noblejas	6	2	1	3	-5	7
13	Quintanar del Rey	6	1	2	3	-5	5
14	Socuéllamos	6	0	4	2	-3	4
15	La Solana	6	1	0	5	-6	3
16	Villarrubia	6	0	3	3	-7	3
17	Guadalajara II	6	0	2	4	-7	2
18	Huracán Balazote	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Noblejas win, at 50.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.