Estadio Municipal Ángel Luengo · Referee Pedro Díaz de Mera · Analysis updated 08:09 UTC
Noblejas vs Villarrobledo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.89 expected goals for Noblejas and 1.34 for Villarrobledo, a combined total of 2.23. That distribution gives Villarrobledo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Villarrobledo win
47.3% probability
Expected goals
0.89 – 1.34
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Noblejas home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Villarrobledo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Villarrobledo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 25% / 28% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.89 goals for Noblejas and 1.34 for Villarrobledo, a combined 2.23 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.4%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–010.7%
- 0–29.7%
- 1–09.5%
Recent form
Noblejas
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · H vs CD Villa · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Torrijos · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Illescas · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarrobledo · 0-2 (L)
Villarrobledo
- 2026-10-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchego · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Huracán Balazote · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Villacañas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs La Solana · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Noblejas · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchego | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 2 | Toledo | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Villarrobledo | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 16 |
| 4 | CD Villa | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Villacañas | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 6 | Tarancón | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Illescas | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Torrijos | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Noblejas | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 10 | San Clemente | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Almansa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 12 | Marchamalo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Villarrubia | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | Socuéllamos | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | La Solana | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 6 |
| 16 | Quintanar del Rey | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 17 | Huracán Balazote | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 | Guadalajara II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Villarrobledo win, at 47.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.