· Analysis updated 23:24 UTC
Nocerina vs Ischia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for Nocerina and 0.86 for Ischia, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Nocerina the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nocerina win
54.6% probability
Expected goals
1.59 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nocerina home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ischia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.7%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–010.9%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.3%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 73.0% | 74.9% | 1.34 | +1.9 |
| Match result | Away | 4.75 | 19.1% | 20.3% | 4.93 | +1.2 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.70 | 55.3% | 55.7% | 1.80 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 1.67 | 54.3% | 54.6% | 1.83 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.00 | 45.6% | 45.4% | 2.20 | -0.2 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.10 | 44.7% | 44.3% | 2.26 | -0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.7% | 25.1% | 3.98 | -1.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.12 | 81.4% | 79.7% | 1.25 | -1.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Nocerina
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bisceglie · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ischia · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Manfredonia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ebolitana · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ischia · 0-1 (L)
Ischia
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ebolitana · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bisceglie · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Nardò · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Nocerina · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Normanna · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · Nocerina 3-2 Ischia (Serie D - Girone H)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · Nocerina 0-1 Ischia (Serie D - Girone G)
- 2025-12-21T13:30:00.000Z · Nocerina 1-2 Ischia (Serie D - Girone G)
- 2025-02-23T13:30:00.000Z · Nocerina 1-0 Ischia (Serie D - Girone H)
- 2024-11-06T13:30:00.000Z · Nocerina 1-2 Ischia (Coppa Italia Serie D)
- 2024-10-23T12:30:00.000Z · Nocerina 2-0 Ischia (Serie D - Girone H)
- 2024-05-05T13:00:00.000Z · Nocerina 1-0 Ischia (Serie D - Girone G)
- 2023-12-20T13:30:00.000Z · Nocerina 1-1 Ischia (Serie D - Girone G)
- 2023-08-27T14:00:00.000Z · Nocerina 3-2 Ischia (Coppa Italia Serie D)
Serie D - Girone H table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virtus Francavilla | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Martina Franca | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| 3 | Turris | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 19 |
| 4 | Brindisi | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Bisceglie | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Gravina | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Manfredonia | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Nocerina | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Fidelis Andria | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Gladiator | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Real Normanna | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 | USD Palmese | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | Ebolitana | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 14 | Francavilla | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Melfi | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 | Real Forio 2014 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 | Ischia | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Nardò | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nocerina win, at 54.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.