· Analysis updated 16:06 UTC
Nocerina vs USD Palmese Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Nocerina and 1.45 for USD Palmese, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Nocerina the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nocerina win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nocerina home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
USD Palmese away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nocerina to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 22% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Nocerina and 1.45 for USD Palmese, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.4%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–26.8%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.5%
Recent form
Nocerina
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bisceglie · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ischia · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Manfredonia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ebolitana · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ischia · 0-1 (L)
USD Palmese
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nocerina · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Normanna · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Francavilla · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Turris · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Virtus Francavilla · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone H table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virtus Francavilla | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 2 | Martina Franca | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 15 |
| 3 | Turris | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 15 |
| 4 | Bisceglie | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 5 | Nocerina | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Gravina | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Brindisi | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Manfredonia | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Real Normanna | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Gladiator | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Ebolitana | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Real Forio 2014 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | USD Palmese | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 | Fidelis Andria | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 15 | Nardò | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 6 |
| 16 | Ischia | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 | Francavilla | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 4 |
| 18 | Melfi | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nocerina win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.