Campo La Caseta · Analysis updated 10:32 UTC
Noja vs Cartes Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Noja and 1.63 for Cartes, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Cartes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cartes win
46.1% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Noja home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cartes away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cartes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 29% / 24% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Noja and 1.63 for Cartes, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–19.2%
- 0–27.4%
- 2–17.2%
Recent form
Noja
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ribadesella CF · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ribadesella CF · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cartes · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnástica Torrelavega · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-04-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Revilla · 0-1 (L)
Cartes
- 2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Noja · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Castro · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-26T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Cayón · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-04-18T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Montañas Pas · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Escobedo · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tropezón | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Laredo | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 18 |
| 3 | Revilla | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Bezana | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 5 | Cayón | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | Vimenor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| 7 | Sámano | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 8 | Torina | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 9 | Atlético Mineros | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 10 | Castro | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Guarnizo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Selaya | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 13 | Atlético Albericia | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Solares | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Escobedo | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 16 | Naval Reinosa | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 17 | Velarde | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 18 | Barquereño | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cartes win, at 46.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.