Hiiu Stadium · Analysis updated 12:58 UTC
Nõmme Kalju II vs Elva Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.19 expected goals for Nõmme Kalju II and 1.82 for Elva, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Elva the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Elva win
52.1% probability
Expected goals
1.19 – 1.82
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nõmme Kalju II home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Elva away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Elva to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 25% / 23% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.19 goals for Nõmme Kalju II and 1.82 for Elva, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–19.0%
- 0–28.2%
- 2–16.4%
Recent form
Nõmme Kalju II
- 2026-10-18T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Elva · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FCI Levadia II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Maardu · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Nõmme United II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tartu Welco · 0-3 (L)
Elva
- 2026-10-18T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme Kalju II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Tartu Welco · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tallinna Kalev · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Tallinn · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Flora II · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Esiliiga A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 33 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 54 | 71 |
| 2 | Viimsi | 33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 29 | 57 |
| 3 | FCI Levadia II | 32 | 16 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 50 |
| 4 | Elva | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | -1 | 49 |
| 5 | Flora II | 31 | 14 | 6 | 11 | 18 | 48 |
| 6 | Maardu | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | -12 | 43 |
| 7 | Tallinna Kalev | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | -5 | 37 |
| 8 | Nõmme United II | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | -14 | 36 |
| 9 | FC Tallinn | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | -35 | 35 |
| 10 | Nõmme Kalju II | 33 | 6 | 6 | 21 | -42 | 24 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Elva win, at 52.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.