Nõmme Kalju II vs Flora II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for Nõmme Kalju II and 2.73 for Flora II, a combined total of 4.11. That distribution gives Flora II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Flora II win

66.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.37 – 2.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Nõmme Kalju II home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Flora II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Nõmme Kalju II win17%

Draw17%

Flora II win66%

Double chance 1X

34%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

83%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals78%

Over 3.5 goals59%

Both teams to score70%

Correct score

1–28.4%
1–37.7%
1–16.2%
0–26.2%
2–25.8%

Recent form

Nõmme Kalju II

2026-10-18T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Elva · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FCI Levadia II · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Maardu · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-21T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Nõmme United II · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tartu Welco · 0-3 (L)

Flora II

2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tartu Welco · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nõmme Kalju II · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Tallinn · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme Kalju II · 5-0 (W)
2026-07-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Trans Narva · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-10T16:00:00.000Z · Nõmme Kalju II 0-3 Flora II (Esiliiga A)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · Nõmme Kalju II 0-5 Flora II (Esiliiga A)
2026-03-19T16:00:00.000Z · Nõmme Kalju II 1-3 Flora II (Esiliiga A)
2025-09-18T14:30:00.000Z · Nõmme Kalju II 3-0 Flora II (Esiliiga A)
2025-07-26T12:00:00.000Z · Nõmme Kalju II 2-1 Flora II (Esiliiga A)
2025-05-19T16:00:00.000Z · Nõmme Kalju II 0-3 Flora II (Esiliiga A)
2025-04-06T09:30:00.000Z · Nõmme Kalju II 2-1 Flora II (Esiliiga A)
2018-09-24T16:00:00.000Z · Nõmme Kalju II 1-1 Flora II (Esiliiga A)
2018-08-11T16:00:00.000Z · Nõmme Kalju II 0-6 Flora II (Esiliiga A)
2018-06-08T16:00:00.000Z · Nõmme Kalju II 1-2 Flora II (Esiliiga A)

Esiliiga A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tartu Welco	33	22	5	6	54	71
2	Viimsi	33	17	6	10	29	57
3	FCI Levadia II	32	16	2	14	8	50
4	Elva	32	14	7	11	-1	49
5	Flora II	31	14	6	11	18	48
6	Maardu	30	12	7	11	-12	43
7	Tallinna Kalev	31	10	7	14	-5	37
8	Nõmme United II	32	10	6	16	-14	36
9	FC Tallinn	33	9	8	16	-35	35
10	Nõmme Kalju II	33	6	6	21	-42	24

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Flora II win, at 66.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.