· Analysis updated 06:57 UTC
Nõmme United II vs FCI Levadia II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Nõmme United II and 2.07 for FCI Levadia II, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives FCI Levadia II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.2% probability
Expected goals
1.83 – 2.07
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nõmme United II home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FCI Levadia II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FCI Levadia II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 35% / 21% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Nõmme United II and 2.07 for FCI Levadia II, a combined 3.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.9%
- 1–17.7%
- 2–27.3%
- 2–17.0%
- 1–35.5%
Recent form
Nõmme United II
- 2026-09-21T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme Kalju II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Viimsi · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Tallinna Kalev · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Maardu · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-03T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Elva · 0-1 (L)
FCI Levadia II
- 2026-10-25T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Elva · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tallinna Kalev · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nõmme Kalju II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme United II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Maardu · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · Nõmme United II 1-2 FCI Levadia II (Esiliiga A)
- 2026-05-25T16:00:00.000Z · Nõmme United II 2-4 FCI Levadia II (Esiliiga A)
- 2026-03-16T16:00:00.000Z · Nõmme United II 1-0 FCI Levadia II (Esiliiga A)
- 2026-01-17T11:30:00.000Z · Nõmme United II 2-2 FCI Levadia II (Friendlies Clubs)
Esiliiga A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 55 | 74 |
| 2 | Viimsi | 33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 29 | 57 |
| 3 | Flora II | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 19 | 51 |
| 4 | FCI Levadia II | 33 | 16 | 3 | 14 | 8 | 51 |
| 5 | Elva | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 50 |
| 6 | Maardu | 31 | 12 | 8 | 11 | -12 | 44 |
| 7 | FC Tallinn | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | -34 | 38 |
| 8 | Tallinna Kalev | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | -6 | 37 |
| 9 | Nõmme United II | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | -15 | 37 |
| 10 | Nõmme Kalju II | 34 | 6 | 6 | 22 | -43 | 24 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.