· Analysis updated 13:29 UTC
Nõmme United II vs Viimsi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Nõmme United II and 1.92 for Viimsi, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Viimsi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Viimsi win
48.2% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nõmme United II home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Viimsi away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Viimsi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 30% / 22% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Nõmme United II and 1.92 for Viimsi, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.5%
- 1–29.1%
- 2–17.0%
- 2–26.7%
- 0–16.4%
Recent form
Nõmme United II
- 2026-09-21T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme Kalju II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Viimsi · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Tallinna Kalev · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Maardu · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-03T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Elva · 0-1 (L)
Viimsi
- 2026-10-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Tallinn · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Maardu · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tallinna Kalev · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tammeka · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tartu Welco · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · Nõmme United II 1-0 Viimsi (Esiliiga A)
- 2026-08-24T16:00:00.000Z · Nõmme United II 1-4 Viimsi (Esiliiga A)
- 2026-07-27T16:00:00.000Z · Nõmme United II 0-3 Viimsi (Esiliiga A)
- 2026-04-12T09:30:00.000Z · Nõmme United II 3-1 Viimsi (Esiliiga A)
Esiliiga A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 55 | 74 |
| 2 | Viimsi | 33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 29 | 57 |
| 3 | Flora II | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 19 | 51 |
| 4 | FCI Levadia II | 33 | 16 | 3 | 14 | 8 | 51 |
| 5 | Elva | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 50 |
| 6 | Maardu | 31 | 12 | 8 | 11 | -12 | 44 |
| 7 | FC Tallinn | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | -34 | 38 |
| 8 | Tallinna Kalev | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | -6 | 37 |
| 9 | Nõmme United II | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | -15 | 37 |
| 10 | Nõmme Kalju II | 34 | 6 | 6 | 22 | -43 | 24 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Viimsi win, at 48.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.