· Analysis updated 05:59 UTC
Nõmme United vs Vaprus Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Nõmme United and 1.45 for Vaprus, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Nõmme United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nõmme United win
48.3% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nõmme United home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vaprus away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–27.0%
- 1–06.7%
- 2–26.7%
Recent form
Nõmme United
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Paide · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Flora Tallinn · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kalju Nomme · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vaprus · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Vaprus · 3-2 (W)
Vaprus
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Flora Tallinn · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Paide · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Levadia Tallinn · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Laagri · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nõmme United · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · Nõmme United 0-1 Vaprus (Meistriliiga)
- 2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · Nõmme United 3-2 Vaprus (Cup)
- 2026-05-02T14:00:00.000Z · Nõmme United 3-2 Vaprus (Meistriliiga)
- 2026-03-14T10:30:00.000Z · Nõmme United 7-1 Vaprus (Meistriliiga)
- 2025-02-12T11:00:00.000Z · Nõmme United 0-7 Vaprus (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-10-19T11:30:00.000Z · Nõmme United 0-2 Vaprus (Meistriliiga)
- 2024-07-13T11:30:00.000Z · Nõmme United 0-2 Vaprus (Meistriliiga)
- 2024-05-31T17:00:00.000Z · Nõmme United 2-1 Vaprus (Meistriliiga)
- 2024-04-26T16:00:00.000Z · Nõmme United 1-2 Vaprus (Meistriliiga)
- 2020-11-25T16:00:00.000Z · Nõmme United 1-4 Vaprus (Esiliiga A)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nõmme United win, at 48.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.