Noordwijk vs UNA Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Noordwijk and 0.78 for UNA, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Noordwijk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Noordwijk win

57.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.60 – 0.78

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Noordwijk home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
UNA away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Noordwijk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 25% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Noordwijk and 0.78 for UNA, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Noordwijk win57%

Draw25%

UNA win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

1–014.9%
2–011.9%
1–111.5%
0–09.3%
2–19.2%

Recent form

Noordwijk

2026-10-24T12:30:00.000Z · H vs GOES · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Rijnvogels · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Gemert · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-03T17:30:00.000Z · A vs EVV · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Zwaluwen · 1-2 (L)

UNA

2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs UDI '19 · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Poortugaal · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Blauw Geel · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Dongen · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs GOES · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Derde Divisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Harkemase Boys	11	8	2	1	10	26
1	Noordwijk	11	9	1	1	21	28
2	ACV	11	7	3	1	16	24
2	FC Lisse	11	9	1	1	18	28
3	VV Scherpenzeel	11	7	3	1	8	24
3	Excelsior Maassluis	11	8	2	1	15	26
4	TEC	11	7	2	2	15	23
4	Rijnvogels	11	7	2	2	16	23
5	Excelsior '31	11	7	1	3	15	22
5	UDI '19	11	6	2	3	10	20
6	SC Genemuiden	11	7	1	3	7	22
6	Zwaluwen	11	6	1	4	-1	19
7	Sportlust '46	11	5	4	2	2	19
7	Poortugaal	11	6	0	5	-1	18
8	Purmersteijn	11	5	3	3	4	18
8	Dongen	11	5	1	5	-1	16
9	Sparta Nijkerk	11	5	2	4	3	17
9	Gemert	11	3	5	3	-3	14
10	ADO '20	11	4	2	5	-2	14
10	GOES	11	4	2	5	-7	14
11	Hoogeveen	11	4	1	6	-1	13
11	Blauw Geel	11	3	3	5	-2	12
12	Hercules	11	4	1	6	-7	13
12	TOGB	11	3	3	5	-6	12
13	Eemdijk	10	3	1	6	-13	10
13	UNA	11	2	5	4	-2	11
14	DVS 33 Ermelo	11	2	3	6	-5	9
14	Roosendaal	11	3	2	6	-5	11
15	Staphorst	11	2	3	6	-8	9
15	Groene Ster	11	2	3	6	-12	9
16	Dovo	11	1	3	7	-13	6
16	Vvsb	11	2	2	7	-10	8
17	Hollandia	10	1	2	7	-11	5
17	Achilles Veen	11	2	0	9	-17	6
18	SVZW	11	0	1	10	-20	1
18	EVV	11	0	3	8	-13	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Noordwijk win, at 57.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.