Norderstedt II vs ETSV Hamburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Norderstedt II and 3.38 for ETSV Hamburg, a combined total of 4.88. That distribution gives ETSV Hamburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

ETSV Hamburg win

73.1% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.50 – 3.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Norderstedt II home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ETSV Hamburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 13% / 14% / 73% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Norderstedt II and 3.38 for ETSV Hamburg, a combined 4.88 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 86% and both teams to score at 74%, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.

Match result (1X2)

Norderstedt II win13%

Draw14%

ETSV Hamburg win73%

Double chance 1X

27%

Double chance 12

87%

Double chance X2

87%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals95%

Over 2.5 goals86%

Over 3.5 goals71%

Both teams to score74%

Correct score

1–37.3%
1–26.5%
1–46.2%
2–35.5%
0–34.9%

Recent form

Norderstedt II

2026-10-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Nikola Tesla · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs HEBC · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs ETSV Hamburg · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Harksheide · 3-3 (D)
2026-10-02T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Altona 93 · 1-4 (L)

ETSV Hamburg

2026-10-23T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Vorwärts-Wacker 04 · 4-5 (L)
2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs HT16 · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Norderstedt II · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Niendorfer TSV · 4-6 (L)
2026-10-04T08:45:00.000Z · A vs Paloma · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · Norderstedt II 2-1 ETSV Hamburg (Oberliga - Hamburg)

Oberliga - Hamburg table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paloma	13	9	2	2	13	29
2	Victoria Hamburg	13	7	5	1	11	26
3	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	13	7	3	3	6	24
4	Tus Dassendorf	12	7	2	3	16	23
5	HT16	13	7	2	4	14	23
6	Niendorfer TSV	13	7	2	4	3	23
7	Altona 93	12	6	3	3	5	21
8	Pinneberg	12	6	2	4	6	20
9	Sasel	13	6	2	5	-1	20
10	Süderelbe	13	5	3	5	3	18
11	HEBC	13	5	0	8	-4	15
12	Buchholz	13	4	3	6	-10	15
13	ETSV Hamburg	12	4	2	6	-1	14
14	Teutonia Ottensen	13	3	3	7	-11	12
15	Nikola Tesla	12	3	2	7	-2	11
16	Concordia	13	3	2	8	-15	11
17	Harksheide	12	1	5	6	-11	8
18	Norderstedt II	13	2	1	10	-22	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is ETSV Hamburg win, at 73.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.

It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.

A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.