Edmund-Plambeck-Stadion · Analysis updated 16:42 UTC
Norderstedt II vs Pinneberg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Norderstedt II and 2.50 for Pinneberg, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Pinneberg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pinneberg win
59.4% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 2.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Norderstedt II home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pinneberg away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pinneberg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 22% / 19% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Norderstedt II and 2.50 for Pinneberg, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.6%
- 1–37.2%
- 1–16.9%
- 2–26.4%
- 0–25.7%
Recent form
Norderstedt II
- 2026-10-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Nikola Tesla · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs HEBC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs ETSV Hamburg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Harksheide · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-02T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Altona 93 · 1-4 (L)
Pinneberg
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Victoria Hamburg · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Vorwärts-Wacker 04 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:30:00.000Z · A vs HT16 · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Niendorfer TSV · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T08:45:00.000Z · A vs Paloma · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-31T18:00:00.000Z · Norderstedt II 2-6 Pinneberg (Oberliga - Hamburg)
Oberliga - Hamburg table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paloma | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 29 |
| 2 | Victoria Hamburg | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 26 |
| 3 | Vorwärts-Wacker 04 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 24 |
| 4 | Tus Dassendorf | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 23 |
| 5 | Niendorfer TSV | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 23 |
| 6 | Altona 93 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 7 | HT16 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 20 |
| 8 | Pinneberg | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 20 |
| 9 | Sasel | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 20 |
| 10 | Süderelbe | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 18 |
| 11 | HEBC | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | -4 | 15 |
| 12 | Buchholz | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 15 |
| 13 | ETSV Hamburg | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -1 | 14 |
| 14 | Teutonia Ottensen | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 12 |
| 15 | Nikola Tesla | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -2 | 11 |
| 16 | Concordia | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -15 | 11 |
| 17 | Harksheide | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 18 | Norderstedt II | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | -22 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pinneberg win, at 59.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.