Nordhorn vs Drochtersen/Assel II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.19 expected goals for Nordhorn and 1.66 for Drochtersen/Assel II, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives Nordhorn the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Nordhorn win

50.0% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.19 – 1.66

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Nordhorn home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Drochtersen/Assel II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nordhorn to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 21% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.19 goals for Nordhorn and 1.66 for Drochtersen/Assel II, a combined 3.85 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Nordhorn win50%

Draw21%

Drochtersen/Assel II win30%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals54%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

2–18.5%
1–17.8%
2–27.0%
1–26.4%
3–16.2%

Recent form

Nordhorn

2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Braunschw. II · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Heeslinger SC · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lüneburger SK Hansa · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Wilhelmshaven · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Schwarz-Weiß Rehden · 1-4 (L)

Drochtersen/Assel II

2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Wilhelmshaven · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Schwarz-Weiß Rehden · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs BW Lohne · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Hildesheim · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Hemmingen · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · Nordhorn 2-0 Drochtersen/Assel II (Oberliga - Niedersachsen)

Oberliga - Niedersachsen table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Eintracht Braunschw. II	11	7	2	2	16	23
2	Heeslinger SC	11	6	4	1	17	22
3	Wilhelmshaven	10	6	3	1	13	21
4	Spelle-Venhaus	10	6	3	1	11	21
5	Schwarz-Weiß Rehden	10	6	3	1	10	21
6	Borussia Hildesheim	10	6	2	2	7	20
7	BW Lohne	10	5	2	3	6	17
8	Bersenbrück	10	5	1	4	4	16
9	Meppen II	11	5	1	5	-2	16
10	Nordhorn	11	3	3	5	-13	12
11	Verden 04	11	2	4	5	-3	10
12	Germania Egestorf	10	2	3	5	-9	9
13	Hemmingen	10	2	1	7	-19	7
14	Lüneburger SK Hansa	10	0	6	4	-5	6
15	Vorsfelde	11	1	2	8	-19	5
16	Drochtersen/Assel II	10	1	0	9	-14	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Nordhorn win, at 50.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.