Normannia Gmünd vs Backnang Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Normannia Gmünd and 3.09 for Backnang, a combined total of 4.20. That distribution gives Backnang the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Backnang win

76.5% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.11 – 3.09

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Normannia Gmünd home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Backnang away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Backnang to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 10% / 13% / 77% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Normannia Gmünd and 3.09 for Backnang, a combined 4.20 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Normannia Gmünd win10%

Draw13%

Backnang win77%

Double chance 1X

24%

Double chance 12

87%

Double chance X2

90%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals79%

Over 3.5 goals60%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–38.2%
1–27.9%
0–37.4%
0–27.2%
1–46.3%

Recent form

Normannia Gmünd

2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Türkspor Neckarsulm · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Essingen · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Young Boys Reutlingen · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs TSV Singen · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bahlinger SC · 0-2 (L)

Backnang

2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bahlinger SC · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Holzhausen · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Oberachern · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Balingen · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-09T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Normannia Gmünd · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Oberachern	13	9	2	2	17	29
2	Backnang	13	8	4	1	17	28
3	FC 08 Villingen	13	8	2	3	8	26
4	Reutlingen	13	8	2	3	7	26
5	Bahlinger SC	13	6	5	2	5	23
6	Young Boys Reutlingen	13	6	4	3	9	22
7	FV Ravensburg	13	5	4	4	9	19
8	Karlsruhe II	12	5	4	3	1	19
9	1. FC Muhlhausen	13	5	3	5	-2	18
10	CFR Pforzheim	13	5	2	6	-3	17
11	FC Holzhausen	13	5	2	6	-3	17
12	Essingen	13	4	3	6	-5	15
13	TSV Singen	13	4	2	7	-8	14
14	Balingen	13	3	4	6	-3	13
15	Teningen	13	4	1	8	-11	13
16	FC Nöttingen	12	4	0	8	7	12
17	Türkspor Neckarsulm	13	3	0	10	-22	9
18	Normannia Gmünd	13	2	0	11	-23	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Backnang win, at 76.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.

A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.