Norrby IF vs IFK Norrkoping Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Norrby IF and 1.75 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives IFK Norrkoping the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

IFK Norrkoping win

58.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.88 – 1.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Norrby IF home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
IFK Norrkoping away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates IFK Norrkoping to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 19% / 23% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for Norrby IF and 1.75 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Norrby IF win19%

Draw23%

IFK Norrkoping win58%

Double chance 1X

42%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

82%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

0–112.7%
1–111.1%
0–211.1%
1–29.7%
0–07.2%

Recent form

Norrby IF

2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Helsingborg · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Varbergs BoIS FC · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ljungskile SK · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Landskrona BoIS · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs GIF Sundsvall · 0-1 (L)

IFK Norrkoping

2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Norrby IF · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Orebro SK · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs GIF Sundsvall · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kalmar FF · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Osters IF · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Superettan table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	IFK Norrkoping	28	19	5	4	40	62
2	Falkenbergs FF	27	15	6	6	15	51
3	Ostersunds FK	28	12	12	4	12	48
4	Varbergs BoIS FC	27	13	7	7	11	46
5	Landskrona BoIS	27	12	7	8	13	43
6	Oddevold	28	11	9	8	11	42
7	Osters IF	28	13	3	12	1	42
8	United Nordic	28	10	9	9	-6	39
9	Sandviken	28	10	8	10	6	38
10	Ljungskile SK	28	8	9	11	-1	33
11	Helsingborg	28	8	8	12	-11	32
12	IFK Varnamo	28	9	5	14	-13	32
13	Norrby IF	28	5	12	11	-10	27
14	IK brage	28	6	8	14	-10	26
15	Orebro SK	27	5	11	11	-12	26
16	GIF Sundsvall	28	6	1	21	-46	19

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is IFK Norrkoping win, at 58.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.