Norrby IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Norrby IF and 1.42 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Varbergs BoIS FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

68.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.18 – 1.42

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Norrby IF home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Varbergs BoIS FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Varbergs BoIS FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 31% / 26% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Norrby IF and 1.42 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Norrby IF win31%

Draw26%

Varbergs BoIS FC win43%

Double chance 1X

57%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–112.4%
0–110.5%
1–28.8%
1–08.7%
0–27.5%

Recent form

Norrby IF

2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Helsingborg · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Varbergs BoIS FC · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ljungskile SK · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Landskrona BoIS · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs GIF Sundsvall · 0-1 (L)

Varbergs BoIS FC

2026-08-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Orebro SK · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Böljan · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs United Nordic · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sandviken · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-01T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Falkenbergs FF · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Superettan table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	IFK Norrkoping	27	18	5	4	36	59
2	Falkenbergs FF	27	15	6	6	15	51
3	Ostersunds FK	28	12	12	4	12	48
4	Varbergs BoIS FC	27	13	7	7	11	46
5	Landskrona BoIS	27	12	7	8	13	43
6	Oddevold	28	11	9	8	11	42
7	Osters IF	28	13	3	12	1	42
8	United Nordic	28	10	9	9	-6	39
9	Sandviken	28	10	8	10	6	38
10	Ljungskile SK	27	8	8	11	-1	32
11	IFK Varnamo	28	9	5	14	-13	32
12	Helsingborg	27	8	7	12	-11	31
13	Norrby IF	27	5	12	10	-6	27
14	IK brage	28	6	8	14	-10	26
15	Orebro SK	27	5	11	11	-12	26
16	GIF Sundsvall	28	6	1	21	-46	19

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.