Norrkopings Idrottspark · Analysis updated 18:05 UTC
Norrköping W vs AIK W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.12 expected goals for Norrköping W and 1.50 for AIK W, a combined total of 2.62. That distribution gives AIK W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
AIK W win
45.8% probability
Expected goals
1.12 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Norrköping W home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AIK W away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AIK W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 29% / 26% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.12 goals for Norrköping W and 1.50 for AIK W, a combined 2.62 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–08.2%
- 0–28.2%
Recent form
Norrköping W
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Häcken W · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosengård W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Brommapojkarna W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hammarby W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Djurgården W · 0-1 (L)
AIK W
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Malmö FF W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Djurgården W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Växjö W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs KIF Örebro W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hammarby W · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Damallsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Häcken W | 22 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 60 | 61 |
| 2 | Hammarby W | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 38 | 53 |
| 3 | Malmö FF W | 22 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 27 | 42 |
| 4 | Kristianstad W | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 35 |
| 5 | AIK W | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 34 |
| 6 | Vittsjö W | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 32 |
| 7 | Brommapojkarna W | 22 | 10 | 2 | 10 | -7 | 32 |
| 8 | Djurgården W | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -6 | 27 |
| 9 | Eskilstuna United W | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -10 | 27 |
| 10 | Piteå W | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | -7 | 24 |
| 11 | Rosengård W | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -3 | 23 |
| 12 | Norrköping W | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -17 | 20 |
| 13 | Växjö W | 22 | 5 | 3 | 14 | -20 | 18 |
| 14 | Uppsala W | 22 | 1 | 3 | 18 | -64 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AIK W win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.