North Carolina Courage W vs Orlando Pride W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.22 expected goals for North Carolina Courage W and 1.27 for Orlando Pride W, a combined total of 3.49. That distribution gives North Carolina Courage W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

North Carolina Courage W win

59.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.22 – 1.27

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Orlando Pride W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates North Carolina Courage W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 20% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.22 goals for North Carolina Courage W and 1.27 for Orlando Pride W, a combined 3.49 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 68% and both teams to score at 64%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Match result (1X2)

North Carolina Courage W win59%

Draw20%

Orlando Pride W win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

2–19.6%
1–18.6%
2–07.5%
3–17.1%
1–06.8%

Recent form

North Carolina Courage W

Orlando Pride W

2026-09-27T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Bay FC W · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Portland Thorns W · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Kansas City W · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-07T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Houston Dash W · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-29T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Utah Royals W · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

NWSL Women table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	27	16	7	4	14	55
2	San Diego Wave W	27	16	3	8	12	51
3	Washington Spirit W	26	14	4	8	12	46
4	Utah Royals W	27	14	4	9	9	46
5	Kansas City W	27	13	5	9	10	44
6	Angel City W	27	12	7	8	16	43
7	Portland Thorns W	27	12	7	8	6	43
8	North Carolina Courage W	27	13	3	11	11	42
9	Seattle Reign FC W	27	12	4	11	1	40
10	Denver Summit W	27	10	8	9	8	38
11	Orlando Pride W	27	10	3	14	-7	33
12	Houston Dash W	26	8	6	12	-4	30
13	Boston Legacy W	27	8	5	14	-10	29
14	Bay FC W	27	7	5	15	-14	26
15	Racing Louisville W	27	7	3	17	-16	24
16	Chicago Red Stars W	27	5	2	20	-48	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is North Carolina Courage W win, at 59.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.