North District Sports Ground · Analysis updated 14:46 UTC
North District vs Kitchee Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for North District and 1.53 for Kitchee, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives North District the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
North District win
46.7% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
North District home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kitchee away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.2%
Recent form
North District
- 2026-10-01T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Southern District · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T08:00:00.000Z · H vs BC Rangers · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Shatin · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Kitchee · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Wofoo Tai Po · 2-0 (W)
Kitchee
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Eastern · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Gangwon FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Southern District · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Eastern District · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T08:00:00.000Z · A vs North District · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T08:00:00.000Z · North District 0-0 Kitchee (Premier League)
- 2026-04-25T07:00:00.000Z · North District 2-2 Kitchee (Premier League)
- 2025-12-13T07:00:00.000Z · North District 1-2 Kitchee (Premier League)
- 2025-10-26T10:00:00.000Z · North District 3-3 Kitchee (Premier League)
- 2025-09-28T10:30:00.000Z · North District 3-2 Kitchee (Senior Shield)
- 2025-04-05T10:00:00.000Z · North District 2-1 Kitchee (Premier League)
- 2025-03-08T07:00:00.000Z · North District 0-5 Kitchee (Premier League)
- 2024-11-16T07:00:00.000Z · North District 1-1 Kitchee (Sapling Cup)
- 2024-08-31T08:00:00.000Z · North District 2-2 Kitchee (Premier League)
- 2024-04-14T07:00:00.000Z · North District 0-4 Kitchee (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitchee | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Warriors | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | North District | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Wofoo Tai Po | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Eastern | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Kowloon City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Eastern District | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Southern District | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | BC Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Hong Kong FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Shatin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is North District win, at 46.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.