North Macedonia U21 vs Armenia U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.64 expected goals for North Macedonia U21 and 0.93 for Armenia U21, a combined total of 2.56. That distribution gives North Macedonia U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

North Macedonia U21 win

54.0% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.64 – 0.93

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

North Macedonia U21 home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Armenia U21 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates North Macedonia U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 25% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.64 goals for North Macedonia U21 and 0.93 for Armenia U21, a combined 2.56 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

North Macedonia U21 win54%

Draw25%

Armenia U21 win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–012.6%
1–111.7%
2–010.3%
2–19.6%
0–07.7%

Recent form

North Macedonia U21

2026-08-24T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Türkiye U20 · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Tunisia U21 · 0-0 (D)
2026-06-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs United States U20 · 0-2 (L)
2026-05-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bulgaria U21 · 0-1 (L)
2026-03-31T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Armenia U21 · 2-0 (W)

Armenia U21

2026-03-31T14:00:00.000Z · H vs North Macedonia U21 · 0-2 (L)
2026-03-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Poland U21 · 1-4 (L)
2025-11-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Sweden U21 · 0-1 (L)
2025-11-14T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Montenegro U21 · 1-2 (L)
2025-10-14T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Italy U21 · 1-5 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Spain U21	10	9	0	1	42	27
2	Finland U21	10	7	2	1	27	23
3	Romania U21	10	5	1	4	-1	16
4	Kosovo U21	10	4	3	3	10	15
5	Cyprus U21	10	2	0	8	-21	6
6	San Marino U21	10	0	0	10	-57	0
1	Portugal U21	10	8	1	1	33	25
2	Czechia U21	10	5	3	2	11	18
3	Scotland U21	10	5	2	3	13	17
4	Bulgaria U21	10	4	2	4	-1	14
5	Azerbaijan U21	10	2	4	4	-13	10
6	Gibraltar U21	10	0	0	10	-43	0
1	France U21	10	8	2	0	26	26
2	Iceland U21	10	5	3	2	11	18
3	Switzerland U21	10	5	2	3	0	17
4	Faroe Islands U21	10	4	0	6	-9	12
5	Luxembourg U21	10	3	1	6	-9	10
6	Estonia U21	10	0	2	8	-19	2
1	England U21	10	7	2	1	16	23
2	Republic of Ireland U21	10	6	2	2	2	20
3	Slovakia U21	10	6	2	2	4	20
4	Moldova U21	10	2	3	5	-7	9
5	Andorra U21	10	2	2	6	-5	8
6	Kazakhstan U21	10	1	1	8	-10	4
1	Italy U21	10	9	0	1	25	27
2	Poland U21	10	9	0	1	20	27
3	Sweden U21	10	4	1	5	-10	13
4	Montenegro U21	10	3	3	4	-3	12
5	North Macedonia U21	10	2	1	7	-12	7
6	Armenia U21	10	0	1	9	-20	1
1	Germany U21	10	9	0	1	27	27
2	Greece U21	10	9	0	1	23	27
3	Northern Ireland U21	10	4	2	4	0	14
4	Georgia U21	10	2	4	4	-2	10
5	Latvia U21	10	2	2	6	-12	8
6	Malta U21	10	0	0	10	-36	0
1	Norway U21	8	5	2	1	13	17
2	Netherlands U21	8	3	3	2	5	12
3	Israel U21	8	2	5	1	0	11
4	Bosnia-Herzegovina U21	8	1	4	3	-8	7
5	Slovenia U21	8	1	2	5	-10	5
1	Croatia U21	8	6	1	1	12	19
2	Turkey U21	8	3	4	1	1	13
3	Ukraine U21	8	3	3	2	4	12
4	Hungary U21	8	1	4	3	-4	7
5	Lithuania U21	8	0	2	6	-13	2
1	Belgium U21	8	5	2	1	11	17
2	Denmark U21	8	4	3	1	9	15
3	Austria U21	8	4	2	2	6	14
4	Wales U21	8	2	0	6	-21	6
5	Belarus U21	8	1	1	6	-5	4
1	Poland U21	8	7	0	1	13	21
2	Greece U21	8	7	0	1	13	21
3	Finland U21	8	5	2	1	12	17
4	Denmark U21	8	4	3	1	9	15
5	Iceland U21	8	4	2	2	7	14
6	Republic of Ireland U21	8	4	2	2	0	14
7	Turkey U21	8	3	4	1	1	13
8	Netherlands U21	8	3	3	2	5	12
9	Czechia U21	8	3	3	2	5	12

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is North Macedonia U21 win, at 54.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.