Stadion Petar Milosevski · Referee A. Talic · Analysis updated 11:52 UTC
North Macedonia U21 vs Montenegro U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for North Macedonia U21 and 1.78 for Montenegro U21, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Montenegro U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Montenegro U21 win
46.4% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
North Macedonia U21 home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Montenegro U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 31% / 23% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for North Macedonia U21 and 1.78 for Montenegro U21, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 63%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–17.4%
- 2–17.3%
- 0–26.6%
Recent form
North Macedonia U21
- 2026-08-24T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Türkiye U20 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Tunisia U21 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs United States U20 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bulgaria U21 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-31T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Armenia U21 · 2-0 (W)
Montenegro U21
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Montenegro U21 win, at 46.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.