Stadion Petar Milosevski · Referee G. Bogar · Analysis updated 09:34 UTC
North Macedonia U21 vs Poland U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.86 expected goals for North Macedonia U21 and 2.30 for Poland U21, a combined total of 3.16. That distribution gives Poland U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Poland U21 win
69.6% probability
Expected goals
0.86 – 2.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
North Macedonia U21 home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Poland U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 13% / 18% / 70% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.86 goals for North Macedonia U21 and 2.30 for Poland U21, a combined 3.16 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 52%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
30%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–211.2%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–38.6%
- 1–18.4%
Recent form
North Macedonia U21
- 2026-08-24T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Türkiye U20 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Tunisia U21 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs United States U20 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bulgaria U21 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-31T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Armenia U21 · 2-0 (W)
Poland U21
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Poland U21 win, at 69.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.