North Star vs Capalaba Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for North Star and 1.10 for Capalaba, a combined total of 2.92. That distribution gives North Star the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws roughly 46% of the time.

Model pick

North Star to Win

54.5% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.83 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

North Star win55%

Draw23%

Capalaba win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–110.8%
2–19.8%
1–09.8%
2–09.0%
3–16.0%

Why the model likes this

Capalaba away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates North Star to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 23% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for North Star and 1.10 for Capalaba, a combined 2.92 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 56% and both teams to score at 56%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Recent form

North Star

Capalaba

2026-08-15T06:15:00.000Z · H vs Robina City · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-09T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Ipswich · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-31T10:30:00.000Z · A vs North Star · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-19T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Holland Park Hawks · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-11T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Redlands United · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Queensland Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Brisbane Strikers	22	17	3	2	34	54
2	Broadbeach United	22	16	4	2	31	52
3	SC Wanderers	22	10	7	5	18	37
4	Ipswich	22	10	5	7	5	35
5	Robina City	22	9	5	8	7	32
6	Caboolture	22	9	4	9	7	31
7	Redlands United	22	8	6	8	2	30
8	Holland Park Hawks	22	9	3	10	-8	30
9	Logan Lightning	22	8	3	11	-2	27
10	North Star	22	6	3	13	-19	21
11	St George Willawong	22	4	1	17	-39	13
12	Capalaba	22	3	2	17	-36	11

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.