Robina Common · Analysis updated 08:52 UTC
North Star vs Robina City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for North Star and 1.45 for Robina City, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Robina City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.2% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
North Star home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Robina City away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Robina City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 34% / 26% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for North Star and 1.45 for Robina City, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 0–19.3%
- 1–28.7%
- 1–08.3%
- 2–17.8%
Recent form
North Star
- 2026-08-15T06:15:00.000Z · H vs Caboolture · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-09T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Robina City · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-31T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Capalaba · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-18T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Ipswich · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-10T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Holland Park Hawks · 0-0 (D)
Robina City
- 2026-08-15T06:15:00.000Z · A vs Capalaba · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-09T06:00:00.000Z · A vs North Star · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Holland Park Hawks · 3-6 (L)
- 2026-07-19T04:30:00.000Z · H vs Redlands United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-11T06:30:00.000Z · A vs St George Willawong · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-09T06:00:00.000Z · North Star 1-0 Robina City (Queensland Premier League)
- 2026-05-10T04:30:00.000Z · North Star 1-3 Robina City (Queensland Premier League)
Queensland Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Strikers | 22 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 54 |
| 2 | Broadbeach United | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 31 | 52 |
| 3 | SC Wanderers | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 37 |
| 4 | Ipswich | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 35 |
| 5 | Robina City | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 32 |
| 6 | Caboolture | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 31 |
| 7 | Redlands United | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 30 |
| 8 | Holland Park Hawks | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | -8 | 30 |
| 9 | Logan Lightning | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -2 | 27 |
| 10 | North Star | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -19 | 21 |
| 11 | St George Willawong | 22 | 4 | 1 | 17 | -39 | 13 |
| 12 | Capalaba | 22 | 3 | 2 | 17 | -36 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.