North Texas vs St. Louis City II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for North Texas and 1.60 for St. Louis City II, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives North Texas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

North Texas win

50.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.15 – 1.60

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

North Texas home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
St. Louis City II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

North Texas win50%

Draw21%

St. Louis City II win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals72%

Over 3.5 goals52%

Both teams to score71%

Correct score

2–18.7%
1–18.1%
2–27.0%
1–26.5%
3–16.2%

Recent form

North Texas

2026-09-14T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Houston Dynamo FC II · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-10T00:45:00.000Z · H vs Houston Dynamo FC II · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-05T00:45:00.000Z · H vs Real Monarchs · 4-1 (W)
2026-08-29T00:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Louis City II · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-23T00:45:00.000Z · H vs Minnesota United II · 1-1 (D)

St. Louis City II

2026-10-17T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Portland Timbers II · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Austin II · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-14T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Portland Timbers II · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting KC II · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-29T00:00:00.000Z · H vs North Texas · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-29T00:00:00.000Z · North Texas 1-1 St. Louis City II (MLS Next Pro)
2026-07-05T00:45:00.000Z · North Texas 3-0 St. Louis City II (MLS Next Pro)
2026-05-30T21:00:00.000Z · North Texas 0-2 St. Louis City II (MLS Next Pro)
2025-08-17T00:45:00.000Z · North Texas 1-3 St. Louis City II (MLS Next Pro)
2025-06-05T00:00:00.000Z · North Texas 0-2 St. Louis City II (MLS Next Pro)
2025-03-10T00:30:00.000Z · North Texas 0-3 St. Louis City II (MLS Next Pro)
2024-11-03T00:30:00.000Z · North Texas 3-0 St. Louis City II (MLS Next Pro)
2024-08-25T23:00:00.000Z · North Texas 0-4 St. Louis City II (MLS Next Pro)
2024-07-28T00:15:00.000Z · North Texas 2-1 St. Louis City II (MLS Next Pro)
2024-03-24T23:00:00.000Z · North Texas 1-1 St. Louis City II (MLS Next Pro)

MLS Next Pro table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Columbus Crew II	28	17	11	6	48
1	Crown Legacy	28	20	8	28	58
1	Portland Timbers II	28	19	9	8	57
1	Austin II	28	21	7	33	65
1	Crown Legacy	28	20	8	28	58
1	Austin II	28	21	7	33	65
2	New England II	28	16	12	5	48
2	Chattanooga	28	19	9	17	56
2	Ventura County	28	18	10	22	53
2	Houston Dynamo FC II	28	18	10	20	52
2	Chattanooga	28	19	9	17	56
2	Portland Timbers II	28	19	9	8	57
3	New York City II	28	16	12	6	47
3	Atlanta United II	28	15	13	16	48
3	Los Angeles FC II	28	14	14	2	45
3	Minnesota United II	28	15	13	4	45
3	Atlanta United II	28	15	13	16	48
3	Ventura County	28	18	10	22	53
4	Connecticut FC	28	16	12	7	46
4	Huntsville City	28	14	14	2	44
4	The Town	28	14	14	15	42
4	St. Louis City II	28	14	14	2	44
4	Columbus Crew II	28	17	11	6	48
4	Houston Dynamo FC II	28	18	10	20	52
5	New York RB II	28	15	13	10	46
5	Orlando City II	28	15	13	-1	44
5	Tacoma Defiance	28	14	14	-4	41
5	North Texas	28	14	14	1	40
5	New England II	28	16	12	5	48
5	Minnesota United II	28	15	13	4	45
6	Philadelphia Union II	28	14	14	-3	43
6	Chicago Fire II	28	13	15	2	39
6	Real Monarchs	28	12	16	-17	33
6	Sporting KC II	28	7	21	-39	23
6	New York City II	28	16	12	6	47
6	Los Angeles FC II	28	14	14	2	45
7	Toronto II	28	13	15	-8	39
7	Carolina Core	28	10	18	-13	31
7	Vancouver Whitecaps II	28	10	18	-23	27
7	Colorado Rapids II	28	6	22	-24	21
7	Connecticut FC	28	16	12	7	46
7	St. Louis City II	28	14	14	2	44
8	FC Cincinnati II	28	7	21	-30	20
8	Inter Miami II	28	4	24	-44	15
8	New York RB II	28	15	13	10	46
8	The Town	28	14	14	15	42
9	Huntsville City	28	14	14	2	44
9	Tacoma Defiance	28	14	14	-4	41
10	Orlando City II	28	15	13	-1	44
10	North Texas	28	14	14	1	40
11	Philadelphia Union II	28	14	14	-3	43
11	Real Monarchs	28	12	16	-17	33
12	Toronto II	28	13	15	-8	39
12	Vancouver Whitecaps II	28	10	18	-23	27
13	Chicago Fire II	28	13	15	2	39
13	Sporting KC II	28	7	21	-39	23
14	Carolina Core	28	10	18	-13	31
14	Colorado Rapids II	28	6	22	-24	21
15	FC Cincinnati II	28	7	21	-30	20
16	Inter Miami II	28	4	24	-44	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is North Texas win, at 50.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.