North Texas vs Tacoma Defiance Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for North Texas and 1.21 for Tacoma Defiance, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives North Texas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

North Texas win

47.1% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.63 – 1.21

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

North Texas home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tacoma Defiance away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates North Texas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 25% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for North Texas and 1.21 for Tacoma Defiance, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

North Texas win47%

Draw25%

Tacoma Defiance win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–111.5%
1–09.6%
2–19.4%
2–07.8%
0–17.1%

Recent form

North Texas

2026-09-14T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Houston Dynamo FC II · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-10T00:45:00.000Z · H vs Houston Dynamo FC II · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-05T00:45:00.000Z · H vs Real Monarchs · 4-1 (W)
2026-08-29T00:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Louis City II · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-23T00:45:00.000Z · H vs Minnesota United II · 1-1 (D)

Tacoma Defiance

2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z · A vs The Town · 4-4 (D)
2026-09-20T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Portland Timbers II · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-14T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Ventura County · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-06T02:30:00.000Z · A vs The Town · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-31T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Monarchs · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

MLS Next Pro table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Columbus Crew II	28	17	11	6	48
2	New England II	28	16	12	5	48
3	New York City II	28	16	12	6	47
4	Connecticut FC	28	16	12	7	46
5	New York RB II	28	15	13	10	46
6	Philadelphia Union II	28	14	14	-3	43
7	Toronto II	28	13	15	-8	39
8	FC Cincinnati II	28	7	21	-30	20
1	Crown Legacy	28	20	8	28	58
2	Chattanooga	28	19	9	17	56
3	Atlanta United II	28	15	13	16	48
4	Huntsville City	28	14	14	2	44
5	Orlando City II	28	15	13	-1	44
6	Chicago Fire II	28	13	15	2	39
7	Carolina Core	28	10	18	-13	31
8	Inter Miami II	28	4	24	-44	15
1	Portland Timbers II	28	19	9	8	57
2	Ventura County	28	18	10	22	53
3	Los Angeles FC II	28	14	14	2	45
4	The Town	28	14	14	15	42
5	Tacoma Defiance	28	14	14	-4	41
6	Real Monarchs	28	12	16	-17	33
7	Vancouver Whitecaps II	28	10	18	-23	27
1	Austin II	28	21	7	33	65
2	Houston Dynamo FC II	28	18	10	20	52
3	Minnesota United II	28	15	13	4	45
4	St. Louis City II	28	14	14	2	44
5	North Texas	28	14	14	1	40
6	Sporting KC II	28	7	21	-39	23
7	Colorado Rapids II	28	6	22	-24	21
1	Crown Legacy	28	20	8	28	58
1	Austin II	28	21	7	33	65
2	Chattanooga	28	19	9	17	56
2	Portland Timbers II	28	19	9	8	57
3	Atlanta United II	28	15	13	16	48
3	Ventura County	28	18	10	22	53
4	Columbus Crew II	28	17	11	6	48
4	Houston Dynamo FC II	28	18	10	20	52
5	New England II	28	16	12	5	48
5	Minnesota United II	28	15	13	4	45
6	New York City II	28	16	12	6	47
6	Los Angeles FC II	28	14	14	2	45
7	Connecticut FC	28	16	12	7	46
7	St. Louis City II	28	14	14	2	44
8	New York RB II	28	15	13	10	46
8	The Town	28	14	14	15	42
9	Huntsville City	28	14	14	2	44
9	Tacoma Defiance	28	14	14	-4	41
10	Orlando City II	28	15	13	-1	44
10	North Texas	28	14	14	1	40
11	Philadelphia Union II	28	14	14	-3	43
11	Real Monarchs	28	12	16	-17	33
12	Toronto II	28	13	15	-8	39
12	Vancouver Whitecaps II	28	10	18	-23	27
13	Chicago Fire II	28	13	15	2	39
13	Sporting KC II	28	7	21	-39	23
14	Carolina Core	28	10	18	-13	31
14	Colorado Rapids II	28	6	22	-24	21
15	FC Cincinnati II	28	7	21	-30	20
16	Inter Miami II	28	4	24	-44	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is North Texas win, at 47.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.