Downsview Park Turf 2 · Analysis updated 05:44 UTC
North Toronto Nitros vs Vaughan Azzurri Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for North Toronto Nitros and 2.10 for Vaughan Azzurri, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives Vaughan Azzurri the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vaughan Azzurri win
50.4% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 2.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
North Toronto Nitros home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vaughan Azzurri away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.9%
- 1–18.5%
- 2–26.9%
- 2–16.6%
- 1–36.2%
Recent form
North Toronto Nitros
- 2025-08-23T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Scrosoppi · 0-8 (L)
- 2025-08-16T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Vaughan Azzurri · 1-0 (W)
- 2025-08-09T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Scrosoppi · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-08-03T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Burlington · 2-3 (L)
- 2025-07-26T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Burlington · 3-2 (W)
Vaughan Azzurri
- 2025-08-24T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Burlington · 4-0 (W)
- 2025-08-16T23:30:00.000Z · A vs North Toronto Nitros · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-08-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Burlington · 2-0 (W)
- 2025-08-03T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Woodbridge Strikers · 4-0 (W)
- 2025-07-27T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Woodbridge Strikers · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-08-16T23:30:00.000Z · North Toronto Nitros 1-0 Vaughan Azzurri (League 1 Ontario)
- 2025-06-01T23:00:00.000Z · North Toronto Nitros 4-3 Vaughan Azzurri (League 1 Ontario)
- 2024-08-24T23:30:00.000Z · North Toronto Nitros 0-8 Vaughan Azzurri (League 1 Ontario)
- 2024-07-07T23:00:00.000Z · North Toronto Nitros 1-3 Vaughan Azzurri (League 1 Ontario)
- 2023-04-13T00:00:00.000Z · North Toronto Nitros 2-2 Vaughan Azzurri (League 1 Ontario)
- 2022-05-29T00:00:00.000Z · North Toronto Nitros 0-1 Vaughan Azzurri (League 1 Ontario)
League 1 Ontario table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Woodbridge Strikers | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 28 | 43 |
| 2 | Scrosoppi | 20 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 24 | 41 |
| 3 | Alliance United | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 35 |
| 4 | Simcoe County Rovers | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 30 |
| 5 | Vaughan Azzurri | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 29 |
| 6 | Blue Devils | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 29 |
| 7 | St. Catharines Wolves | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 28 |
| 8 | Sigma | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | -9 | 24 |
| 9 | Burlington | 20 | 8 | 0 | 12 | -9 | 24 |
| 10 | North Toronto Nitros | 20 | 5 | 2 | 13 | -27 | 17 |
| 11 | FC London | 20 | 2 | 2 | 16 | -34 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vaughan Azzurri win, at 50.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.