Sixfields Stadium · Referee S. Mather · Analysis updated 14:34 UTC
Northampton vs Brighton U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Northampton and 1.41 for Brighton U21, a combined total of 2.94. That distribution gives Northampton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.9% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Northampton home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Brighton U21 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Northampton to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 25% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Northampton and 1.41 for Brighton U21, a combined 2.94 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–08.1%
- 1–28.0%
- 0–17.4%
Recent form
Northampton
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs York · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cambridge United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rotherham · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shrewsbury · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Newport County · 1-0 (W)
Brighton U21
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs AFC Bournemouth U21 · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Gillingham · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield United U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool U21 · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Paris Saint-Germain U21 · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.